Polymarket's Iran Strike Contract: The 27.5% Signal and the Oracle's Burden
A probability sits on the chain. 27.5%. That is the market's estimate—as of t...
UMA related articles
A probability sits on the chain. 27.5%. That is the market's estimate—as of t...
The Polymarket contract for "Iran will strike a Gulf state by July 22" hit...
Hook 86% probability. That’s what the market priced on Polymarket for Yamine...
The interface shows a clean decimal: 10.5% – the market’s implied probability...
Greed
Market Sentiment
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Block reward halving event
92 million ARB released
Team and early investor shares released
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
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